Employment

  • Present 2019

    Economist

    World Bank, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice

  • 2019 2016

    Scientific Officer

    Euopean Commission, Joint Research Center

  • 2016 2013

    Research Fellow

    Euopean Commission, Joint Research Center

  • 2011 2001

    Visiting Scholar

    Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics

  • 2013 2004

    Research Assistant

    Middle East Technical University, Deparment of Economics

Education & Training

  • Ph.D. 2013

    Ph.D. in Economics

    Middle East Technical University, Ankara

  • M.Sc. 2006

    M.Sc. in Economics

    Middle East Technical University, Ankara

  • B.A. 2003

    B.A. in Economics

    Boğaziçi University, İstanbul

Honors, Awards and Grants

  • 2014
    Mustafa Parlar Association Best Thesis in METU Award
    image
    Awarded to the graduate thesis which had been completed in various departments of Middle East Technical University (METU) in the previous year and are found as successful by experts and also approved by the selection committee.
  • 2013
    EconAnadolu Conference, Best Research Article Award, (2nd)
    image
    Awarded to the full papers submitted to the selection committee and found to be successful by reviewers.

Research Projects

  • Economy-wide analysis of Food Waste Reductions and related costs at NUTS II
                              level for the EU

    Economy-wide analysis of Food Waste Reductions and related costs at NUTS II level for the EU

    Project financed by JRC and commissioned to EuroCare

    Role: Scientific Officer

    Project Team: Dr. Wolfgang Britz (Bonn University - Project Leader), Dr. Yaghoon Yafari (Bonn University), Dr. Luca Salvatici(University Roma Tre), Dr. Ilaria Fusacchia (University Roma Tre), Dr. Roberto Roson (Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia), Dr. Maria C. Latorre (Universidad Complutense de Madrid), Hasan Dudu (JRC), Martina Sartori (JRC)

    Start: November 2017

    Duration: 6 Months

    Following the continuous requests from partner DGs and considering the need for a more comprehensive study on the topic, the specific objectives of the project will be the following:
    • A brief review of literature on the economic analysis of food waste
    • Develop/implement a CGE model (i.e. CGEBox) that can be used in food waste analysis at the most disaggregate regional level possible for EU28 member countries
    • Develop scenarios to see the impact of food waste reduction on overall EU and MS economy by taking into account the costs related to the food waste
    • Test the implications of different modelling assumptions about market structure, production structure etc… and sensitivity of the results to these assumptions
    • Report impacts of food waste and food waste reduction policies on resource use issues such as greenhouse gas emissions, water, land etc…
    • Impacts on trade in value added and development of indicators
    In a nutshell, the final deliverable of the project will provide a coherent and exhaustive analysis of economy-wide impacts of food waste reduction policies and their costs on the EU and member state economies at the most disaggregate regional level possible.

  • Food and Nutrition Security for Sub Saharan Africa (TS4FNS)

    Food and Nutrition Security for Sub Saharan Africa (TS4FNS)

    Project financed by DG-Development and Cooperation and commissioned by JRC-IPTS

    Role: Researcher

    Project Team: Dr. Emanuele Ferrari (Project leader), Dr. Alfredo Mainar Causape, Dr. Pierre Boulanger (JRC-IPTS)

    Start: October 2013

    Duration: 6 Year

    The aim of the project is to improve food and nutrition security in favour of the poorest and the most vulnerable by assisting countries in the planning and implementation of food and nutrition security policies. Project also aims to support to the EU institutions and the partner countries for the formulation of policies and programmes in the sustainable agriculture and food and nutrition security areas through the provision of demand-driven technical and scientific advice.

  • Development of an analytical tool for long-term (2050+) projections and analysis of various scenarios related to
                              food security, climate change, etc. Case-study 2050.

    Development of an analytical tool for long-term (2050+) projections and analysis of various scenarios related to food security, climate change, etc. Case-study 2050.

    financed by JRC-IPTS and contracted to Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)

    Role: Project Manager

    Project Team: Jerzy Michalek (IAMO, Halle, Germany); Maciej Bukowski (WISE Institute, Warsaw, Poland), Jan Gaska (WISE Institute, Warsaw, Poland); Andrey Krasovskii, (IASA, Laxemburg, Austria)

    Start: October 2013

    Duration: 1 Year

    The aim of the project is to carry out an empirical case study with the aim of developing a broader prototype Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model enabling analysis of performance of the agricultural and food sectors in European agriculture by the year 2050+. The Prototype Model is of a general equilibrium type structure and is based on innovative methodological approaches which utilize dynamic- and stochastic modelling techniques run on highly aggregated data on production, consumption, trade, etc.

  • CAPRI–RD: Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact - The Rural Development Dimension Project

    CAPRI–RD: Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact - The Rural Development Dimension Project

    Project financed by European Commission 7th Framework Programmé. Project No. 226195

    Role: Research Assistant

    Project Team: Dr. Erol Çakmak (Project leader), Özlem Tonguç, Dr. Ozan Eruygur (Gazi University)

    Other Partners: 23 partners from 15 countries and 2 international organisations

    Start: January 2006

    Duration: 4 Years, 3 Months

    CAPRI-RDs core contains consistently linked economic models at the NUTS 2 level: the CAPRImodel for agriculture, and a newly developed layer of regional CGEs. Given the importance of the EUs agricultural trade, CAPRI includes a global agricultural market model. The project will improve price transmission modelling inside the EU market, review the implementation of de-coupled payments, and maintain the CAPRI farm type layer. Harmonised and regularly updated databases, including regional Social Accounting Matrices, act as the models sources.

    The above summary is the official one from the Document of Work of the project.

    Please refer to project website for more information.

  • SCENES: Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States Project

    SCENES: Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States Project

    Project financed by European Commission, 6th Framework Programmé. Contract No. 036822

    Role: Research Assistant

    Project Team: Dr. Erol Çakmak (Project leader), Özlem Tonguç, Dr. Metin Ger, Dr. Sema Onurlu (METU), Dr. Ozan Eruygur (Gazi University),

    Other Partners: 23 partners from 15 countries and 2 international organisations

    Start: January 2006

    Duration: 4 Years, 3 Months

    The SCENES project develops and analyses a set of comprehensive scenarios of Europes freshwater futures up to 2025, covering all of Greater Europe and including the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. These scenarios will provide a reference point for long term strategic planning of European water resource development, alert policymakers and stakeholders about emerging problems, and allow river basin managers to test regional and local water plans against uncertainties and surprises which are inherently embedded in a longer term strategic planning process. The combined qualitative and quantitative scenarios developed by SCENES will be policy-relevant by identifying the requirements of stakeholders and decision makers, and including stakeholders in the scenario-building process. The qualitative scenario analysis will also focus on water quality, ecological and hydrological aspects, with special regard to the requirements of the WFD.

    For more information please visit project flyer.

  • State Planning Organization Province Coordination and Monitoring System

    State Planning Organization Province Coordination and Monitoring System

    Project financed by Public Research Group of Turkish Science & Technological Research Council of Turkey and commissioned by Software and Data Engineering Department (G222) of Turkish Science & Technological Research Council of Turkey

    Role: Research Assistant

    Project Team: Dr. Nadir Öcal (Project leader), Ünal Töngür (METU)

    Start: February 2010

    Duration: 9 Months

    The aim of the project was to develop regional indicators that would reflect the development status of the Turkish regions at province level.

  • Anatolia Minerals Co. Erzincan Çöpler Gold Mine Project Conflict and Human Rights Assesment

    Anatolia Minerals Co. Erzincan Çöpler Gold Mine Project Conflict and Human Rights Assesment

    Project financed by Anatolia Minerals Co. and commissioned by METU Centre for Blacksea and Central Asia Studies and Fund For Peace Institution

    Role: Researcher

    Project Team: Dr. Ayse Ayata (Project leader), Dr. Ceylan Tokluoglu,

    Other Partners: The Fund for Peace

    Start: September 2009

    Duration: 3 Months

    The aim of the project is to asses the conflict and human rights situation for the villages around Erzincan Çöpler Gold Mine.

  • The Impact of Agricultural Enterprises on Productivity and Efficiency of Agricultural Production in Turkey and
                              Chaotic Dynamic Analysis of Selected Products: Problems, Solutions and Policy Proposals

    The Impact of Agricultural Enterprises on Productivity and Efficiency of Agricultural Production in Turkey and Chaotic Dynamic Analysis of Selected Products: Problems, Solutions and Policy Proposals

    Project financed by Social Sciences Research Group of Turkish Science & Technological Research Council of Turkey, Project No. SOBAG 1001-109K129

    Role: Researcher

    Project Team: Dr. Yilmaz Kilicaslan (Project leader), Dr. Nilgun Uslu, Dr. Bünyamin Demir, Sevilay Atlama (Anadolu University, Eskisher), Unal Tongur, Pelin Akcagun (METU)

    Other Partners: Presidency of Turkish Parliament, Turkish Ministry of Interior, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Middle East Technical University (METU), Universities across Turkey and Non-governmental Organizations.

    Start: September 2009

    Duration: 6 Months

    The project aims to support the enhancement of the capacity of Turkish Academic Institutions, policy makers and civil society representatives by creating a common platform for discussion and elaboration and to harness existing resources within the current institutional framework so as cover simultaneously both theoretical and policy related migration dynamics.

  • Supporting Turkey’s Efforts in Migration Management

    Supporting Turkey’s Efforts in Migration Management

    Project financed by International Organization for Migration

    Role: Technical Assistant

    Project Team: Dr. Faruk Yalvac, Dr. Isik Kuscu

    Other Partners: Presidency of Turkish Parliament, Turkish Ministry of Interior, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Middle East Technical University (METU), Universities across Turkey and Non-governmental Organizations.

    Start: September 2009

    Duration: 6 Months

    The project aims to support the enhancement of the capacity of Turkish Academic Institutions, policy makers and civil society representatives by creating a common platform for discussion and elaboration and to harness existing resources within the current institutional framework so as cover simultaneously both theoretical and policy related migration dynamics.

  • Anatolia Minerals Co. Erzincan Çöpler Gold Mine Project Social Impact Analysis

    Anatolia Minerals Co. Erzincan Çöpler Gold Mine Project Social Impact Analysis

    Project financed by Anatolia Minerals Co. and commissioned by METU Centre for Blacksea and Central Asia Studies and Environmental Resources Management Consulting

    Role: Researcher

    Project Team: Dr. Ayse Ayata (Project leader), Dr. Ceylan Tokluoglu, , Dr. Erkan Erdil

    Other Partners: Environmental Resources Management Group

    Start: June 2009

    Duration: 4 Months

    The aim of the project is to create a socio-economic baseline for the Erzincan Çöpler Gold Mine.

  • Efficiency Analysis of Forest Revolving Fund Enterprises in Turkey: Problems, Solutions and Policy Recommendations

    Efficiency Analysis of Forest Revolving Fund Enterprises in Turkey: Problems, Solutions and Policy Recommendations

    Project financed by Social Sciences Research Group of Turkish Science & Technological Research Council of Turkey, Project No. SOBAG 1002-107K552

    Role: Research Assistant

    Project Team:Dr. Yilmaz Kilicaslan, Dr. Mehmet Basar, Dr/ Sebnem Tosunoglu (Anadolu University, Eskisehir)

    Start: December 2008

    Duration: 2 Months

    The aim of the project is to analyze the efficiency structure of Forest revolving fund enterprises in Turkey by using the results of an extensive survey held by the project team in all enterprises.

  • Macro-Micro Feedback Links of Irrigation Water Management

    Macro-Micro Feedback Links of Irrigation Water Management

    Project financed by World Bank

    Project Team: Dr. Erol H. Çakmak, Hasan Dudu, Dr. Sirin Saraçoglu

    Other Partners: Ariel Dinar (World Bank. Project leader), Xinshen Diao (IFPRI), Terry Roe (University of Minnesota), Yacov Tsur (Hebrew University of Jerusalem), James Thurlow (IFPRI), Chumi Sinqobile (Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa), Rashid Hassan (Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa)

    Start: November 2007

    Duration: 1 year

    Role: Research Assistant

    The aim of the project is to analyze the likely effects of increased competition for water resources and changes in the Turkish economy. The analysis uses an economy-wide Walrasian Computable General Equilibrium model with a detailed account of the agricultural sector. The study investigated the economy-wide effects of two external shocks, namely a permanent increase in the world prices of agricultural commodities and climate change, along with the impact of the domestic reallocation of water between agricultural and non-agricultural uses. It was also recognized that because of spatial heterogeneity of the climate, the simulated scenarios have differential impact on the agricultural production and hence on the allocation of factors of production including water. The greatest effects on major macroeconomic indicators occur in the climate change simulations. As a result of the transfer of water from rural to urban areas, overall production of all crops declines. Although production on rainfed land increases, production on irrigated land declines, most notably the production of maize and fruits. The decrease in agricultural production, coupled with the domestic price increase, is further reflected in net trade. Agricultural imports increase with a greater decline in agricultural exports.

  • Efficiency Structure of Turkish Agriculture

    Efficiency Structure of Turkish Agriculture

    Project financed by Social Sciences Research Group of Turkish Science & Technological Research Council of Turkey, Project No. SOBAG 1001-105K030

    Project Team: Dr. Erol H. Çakmak, Hasan Dudu, Dr. Nadir Öcal

    Start: December 2005

    Duration: 1 year

    Role: Research Assistant

    The aim of the project is to reveal the efficiency structure of Turkish farm households by using Stochastic frontier analysis and an extensive household survey held by GG Consulting et al. for World Bank to analyse the impact of Agricultural Reform Implementation Project of 2001.

  • EUMED-AGPOL: Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization between the EU and Mediterranean Countries

    EUMED-AGPOL: Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization between the EU and Mediterranean Countries

    Project financed by European Commission, 6th Framework Programmé. Project No. SSPE-CT-2004-502457

    Project Team: Dr. Erol H. Çakmak, Hasan Dudu, Ozan Eruygur, Nihal Kirisci

    Other Partners: Florence Jacquet, Fatima El Hadad-Gauthier (CIHEAM/ IAM Montpellier), Jean-Louis Rastoin, Jean-Claude Montigaud (ENSAM/INRA Montpellier), Wolfgang Britz (University of Bonn), Samir Mili (CSIC, Madrid), Emmanuelle Chevassus-Lozza (INRA-Nantes-UMR EDRA), Rachid Doukkali (IAV Hassan II Rabat), Boubaker Karray (Institut de l’Olivier, Sfax), Gamal Siam (CAES, University of Cairo)

    Start: August 2003

    Duration: 2 years 9 Months

    Role: Research Assistant

    The overall objective of this project is to estimate and describe the impacts on European countries of agricultural trade liberalization in the Mediterranean region.

    The major changes to be expected are increased EU imports of fruits, vegetables and olive oil and increased EU exports to non-EU Mediterranean countries of cereals, meats, and milk products.

    Estimation of changes in exports of cereals, meats, and milk products will be done using the CAPRI model. For fruits, vegetables and olive oil, available quantitative models are not sufficient to properly capture the complexity of the phenomena involved (many different products, various seasonal patterns, complex detailed trade regimes). Expert panels for the Mediterranean countries with substantial export potential will be used to complement modeling approaches done at the country level.

    Further information and deliverables can be found on the Project Website.

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Agriculture, trade, and climate change adaptation: a global CGE analysis for Morocco and Turkey

Journal paper Scopus/eSCI Peer Reviwed
Ismail Ouraich, Hasan Dudu, Wallace E. Tyner, Erol Cakmak
2018
The Journal of North African Studies, doi:10.1080/13629387.2018.1463847
Article is open access and available here.

Abstract

The extent to which agricultural trade liberalisation can be an adaptation strategy in the face of climate change remains to be an open discussion in the literature. We set out to answer this question in the context of Morocco and Turkey by taking into account the impact of climate change on agricultural international markets at the global level. We use the GTAP model, combined with a newly developed global database on climate change impacts on agricultural crop sectors by 2050 as captured by yield projections. Results suggest that the more trade is liberalised, the higher global welfare gains are. However, the gains are not large enough to offset the loss from climate change impacts on agricultural productivity globally. In Morocco, agricultural trade liberalisation, on average, induces additional welfare losses. The main drivers are the deterioration in the terms of trade that offsets all the potential gains from the better allocation of economic resources due to free trade. For Turkey, trade liberalisation induces net welfare gains under all scenarios. The larger the tariff elimination scheme, the larger the net gains due to the more efficient allocation of economic resources, which partially offset the impact of declining terms of trade.

Climate Change and Agriculture: An Integrated Approach to Evaluate Economy-wide Effects for Turkey

Journal paper SSCI Peer Reviwed
Hasan Dudu, Erol Cakmak
2017
Climate and Development, 10(3):275-288. doi:10.1080/17565529.2017.1372259
CGE Model Code is open source and available here.
Article is open access and available here.

Abstract

This paper quantifies the economic effects of climate change on Turkey. We use an integrated framework that combines an economy-wide model with a crop water requirement model to analyse the probable effects of the B1 scenario of the intergovernmental panel on climate change which is comparable to representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not have serious economic effects over the period up to late 2030s, but the negative effects dominate the economy in the second half of this century. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to increase resilience and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact of climate change varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected. Especially irrigated production will decline as water stress increases. Significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare. Part of agriculture’s decline is compensated by imports, thus deteriorating Turkey’s food trade balance.

Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri-food Import Ban

Journal paper SSCI Peer Reviwed
Pierre Boulanger, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari, George Philippidis
2016
Journal of Agricultural Economics, forthcoming, doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12156

Available on Open Access

Abstract

In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri-food products from countries enforcing Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia. We use a specific factors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short-run impact of this retaliatory policy. The baseline is carefully designed to isolate the impacts of the ban on the European Union (EU), Russia itself and a selection of key trade partners. The modelling of the ban follows a novel approach, where it is treated as a loss of established trade preferences via reductions in consumer utility in the Armington import function. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest income loss (about €3.4 billion) while the EU recovers part of its lost trade through expansion of exports to other markets. An ex-post comparison between simulation results and observed trade data reveals the model predictions to be broadly accurate, thereby validating the robustness of the modelling approach.

Tarımsal Üretimde Girdi Kullanımının Etkinliği: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar [Input Use Efficiency in Agricultural Production: Evidence from Turkey] (in Turkish),

Journal paper Other Index Peer Reviwed
Kılıçaslan, Y., Çağlarırmak Uslu, N., Dudu, H., Alptekin, N., Demir, B.,
2014
Iktisat Isletme ve Finans Dergisi, 30(347):37-68. doi: 10.3848/iif.2014.347.4268

Özet

Yeryüzü’nün ekolojik sisteminde iklim değişikliği nedeni ile ortaya çıkan değişmeler ile tarımsal ürün talebindeki artışların neden olduğu olumsuz etkiler hem Türkiye’de hem de Dünya’da tarım ürünleri piyasalarında dengesizlik eğilimlerini artırmıştır. Bu gelişmeler tarımsal üretimde etkinliği her zamankinden daha önemli hale getirmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de tarımsal üretimde girdi kullanımının etkin(siz)liğini belirleyen faktörleri ortaya çıkarmaktır. Bu amaçla, Türkiye’nin 17 farklı bölgesinde yaklaşık 2000 üretici çiftçi ile görüşülerek 4 ürün (buğday, arpa, çeltik ve ayçiçeği) ile ilgili veriler toplanmıştır. “Stokastik Sınır Analizi (SSA)” yöntemi kullanılarak elde edilen sonuçlar, gübre kullanımının verimsizliğine işaret etmektedir. Sertifikalı tohum kullanımı buğday ve çeltik, toprak analizi ise buğday ve ayçiçeği üretiminin etkinliğini arttıran faktörler olarak ortaya çıkmıştır.

Abstract:

The negative impacts of the increase in the demand for agricultural products and changes in the Earth’s ecological system due to climate change have triggered disequilibrium tendencies in the markets for agricultural products both in Turkey and the World. This development has made efficiency in agricultural production more important than ever. The aim of this study is to explore the factors affecting (in)efficiency of input use in agricultural production in Turkey. For this aim, we collected data on crop production by conducting interviews with about 2000 farmers in 17 different regions of Turkey on four different products (wheat, barley, rice, and Sunflower). The results obtained by using “Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA)” show that fertilizers are used improperly in agricultural production in Turkey. The results also show that using certified seed increases efficiency of wheat and rice production while land analysis enhances efficiency of wheat and sunflower production.

Drivers of Farm Efficiency in Turkey: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

Journal paper Peer Reviwed
Dudu, H., Çakmak , E.H., Öcal, N.,
2015
World Journal of Applied Economics , 1(1): 45-63

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the efficiency structure of Turkish agriculture in farm household level by using various models of stochastic frontier analysis. A household level survey conducted in 2002 and 2004 is used in the analysis. Firstly, an efficient production frontier is estimated by a panel data model. By using these estimates, relative importance of inputs and their interaction with various farm characteristics are inspected. The parameters of production frontier show that agricultural production is crucially dependent on land and there is an excessive employment of labor. Secondly, the efficiency scores are estimated at farm household level. The results are reported according to NUTS-I regional classification and many other farm specific characteristics. The western parts of the country are found to be relatively more efficient and there is a high deviation in the mean efficiencies of different regions. There is an increase in mean efficiencies of all regions from 2002 to 2004. Besides, crop patterns, farm size, education level of household chief and irrigation are found to be effective on efficiency.

Participatory Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Analysis to Evaluate the Future of Water in the Seyhan Basin

Journal paper SCI Peer Reviwed
Çakmak, E., Dudu., H., Eruygur,. O., Ger, M., Onurlu S., Tonguc, Ö.,
2013
Journal of Water and Climate Change 4(12): 131-145, doi:10.2166/wcc.2013.029

ABSTRACT

Stress on the water resources of Turkey is expected to increase in the near future. This paper presents the results of a case study in one of the most important water basins in Turkey, the Seyhan Basin, where the future of the basin is estimated using a fuzzy cognitive mapping technique applied at a participatory meeting with the stakeholders. Participants envisioned that water supply, water demand and water use would decline in the future in response to the increasing impact of climate change. Improvements in sustainable water management, irrigation efficiency and the use of water-saving technologies will diminish the severity of scarcity that is expected to occur due to climate change.

Keywords: dynamic analysis; fuzzy cognitive maps; Seyhan Basin; sustainable water management; water

Climate Change and Agriculture in Turkey: A CGE Modelling Approach

Journal Paper SSCI Peer Reviwed
Çakmak, E.H., Dudu, H., Saraçoglu, D. S.
2010
Iktisat Isletme ve Finans Dergisi, 25(286):9-33, doi: 10.3848/iif.2010.286.2577

Abstract

Agricultural production is heavily dependent on water availability for increasing productivity and decreasing volatility in production. However climate change is expected to increase the sectoral competition for water resources and raise the need for major changes in water policies. This study is the first to analyze the likely effects of climate change and changes in the Turkish economy via an economy-wide Walrasian Computable General Equilibrium model with a detailed account of the agricultural sector: 20 agricultural activities in each of the 5 regions are differentiated as irrigated and rainfed. Major macroeconomic indicators change significantly. The decline in GDP is significant. Wage rate falls, while other factors’ prices increase. Production of irrigated crops decline significantly. Balance of trade in agricultural products becomes negative. Rural households benefits from the increase in the agricultural prices, while urban households are hit hard.

Turk Tarim Sektorunde Etkinlik: Yontem ve Hanehalki Duzeyinde Nicel Analiz [Efficiency in Turkish Agricultural Sector: Method and Farm Household Level Quantitative Analysis], (in Turkish)

Book
Çakmak, E.H., Dudu, H., Ocal, N.,
2008
TEPAV Yayinlari:Ankara

ABSTRACT

This book analyzes the efficiency structure of Turkish agriculture in farm household level by using various models of stochastic frontier analysis. A household level survey conducted in 2002 and 2004 is used in the analysis. Firstly, an efficient production frontier is estimated by a panel data models. By using these estimates, relative importance of production factors and their interaction with various farm specific factors are inspected. The parameters of production frontier show that agricultural production is crucially dependant on land and there is an excessive employment of labor in Turkish agriculture. Secondly, the efficiency scores are estimated at farm household level. The results are reported according to NUTS-II regional classification and many other farm specific characteristics. The western parts of the country are found to be relatively more efficient and there is a high deviation in mean efficiencies of different regions. There is an increase in mean efficiencies of all regions from 2002 to 2004. Besides, crop patterns, farm size, education level of household chief and irrigation are found to be effective on efficiency.

Keywords: Technical Efficiency, Turkish Agriculture, Stochastic Frontier Analysis

ÖZET

Bu kitapta çeşitli stokastik sınır analizi modelleri kullanılarak Türk tarımının verimlilik yapısı köy hane halkı düzeyinde incenlemektir. Analizde 2002 ve 2004 yılları için hane halkı düzeyinde yapılmış bir ankete kullanılmıştır. Öncelikle panel veri modelleri kullanılarak verimli bir üretim sınırı kestirimi yapılmıştır. Bu kestirimler kullanılarak üretim faktörlerinin görece önemleri ve hane halklarına özel çeşitli faktörlerle etkileşimleri incelenmiştir. Üretim sınırının parametreleri tarımsal üretimin önemli ölçüde toprağa bağımlı olarak yapıldığını ve Türk tarımında fazla işgücü istihdamı olduğunu göstermektedir. İkinci olarak, çiftçi hane halkı seviyesinde verimlilik oranları hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlar, NUTS-II bölgesel sınıflandırmasına ve hane halkına özel bir çok değişkene göre sunulmaktadır. Batı bölgelerinin göreceli olarak daha verimli olduğu bulunmuş ve değişik bölgelerin ortalama verimlilikleri arasında yüksek oranda bir sapma bulunmuştur. Bölgelere göre verimlilikte 2002’den 2004’e bir artış vardır. Ayrıca üretim deseni, çiftlik büyüklüğü, hane halkı reisinin eğitim seviyesi ve sulamanın verimlilik üzerinde etkili olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Teknik verimlilik, Türk tarımı, Stokastik Sınır Analizi,

FCMs as a common base for linking participatory products and models

Book Chapter Peer Reviwed
van Vliet, M., Flörke, M., Varela-Ortega, C., Cakmak, E. H., Khadra, R., Esteve, P; D’Agostino, D., Dudu, H, Bärlund, I., Kok, K.
2017
in “Environmental Modeling with Stakeholders” eds. Gray, S., Paolisso, M., Jordan, R., Gray, S., Springer, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-25053-3

Abstract

Stakeholder involvement in modeling studies is increasing. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) are emerging as a promising tool to provide a common base for stakeholders and modelers. FCMs developed by stakeholders from three local Mediterranean case studies are used to construct a stakeholder based FCM. This is done via a workshop in which the locally developed FCMs are merged by regional experts. Graphs and quasi-dynamic output are then compared with an FCM based on a mathematical model (WaterGAP). This model-based FCM was developed in a small workshop by WaterGAP modelers, based on their knowledge of the model. Results show that FCMs indeed have the ability to serve as a common base for linking participatory products and models. The quasi-dynamic output helps to get a better understanding of the commonalities and differences in the two system descriptions. The comparisons showed that FCM is a very promising tool for linking stakeholders and modelers. It can function as a common base for comparison and to illustrate differences between stakeholder perceptions and models in detail. The system dynamics of FCMs can play an important role in the comparison between system perspectives and the dissemination process.

Agricultural Policy Reform in Turkey: Sectoral and Micro Implications

Book Chapter
Çakmak, E.H., Dudu, H.,
2011
in "Rethinking Structural Reform in Turkish Agriculture: Beyond the World Bank’s Strategy", eds. Karapinar, B., Adaman, F., and Ozertan, G., Nova Science Publishers: New York

Abstract

Turkey initiated an agricultural policy reform program in 2000, with the financial and technical support of the World Bank, in order to contribute to financial stabilization and to decrease the price-distorting impact of the prevailing support structure in agriculture. The reform program has never been implemented as was intended at its launch. Output-based deficiency payments eventually gained importance in budgetary transfers without any accompanying decrease in protection for highly protected crops. Expected welfare gains that might have occurred with the transition from border protection to deficiency payments have not been realized. One obvious benefit of the agricultural subsidy reform program has been its significant contribution to fiscal stabilization by making the support budget transparent and establishing accountability.

Concentration, Profitability and (In)Efficiency in Large Scale Firms

Book Chapter Peer Reviwed
Dudu, H., Kilicaslan, Y.,
2008
in “Productivity, Efficiency, and Economic Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region”, eds. Lee J.D. and Heshmati, A., Springer Physica-Verlag: Heidelberg

The relationship between efficiency and market structure has been under investigation in the literature for a long time. According to Hicks (1935), firms with higher market power can survive in the economy even if they have higher costs since they can charge prices above the marginal cost. Although the relationship between firm performance measured by profits and market structure is obvious (Peltzman 1977), the direction of causality remains ambiguous (Clarke et al. 1984). There are different explanations of this relationship. One is to start with market power and relate the higher firm efficiency to the ability of firms with higher market power to charge prices above the cost margin. The second one, originally developed by Demsetz (1973), is based on the efficient structure of production and relates higher market power to the higher profits brought about by higher efficiencies. Although these two approaches try to explain the same relationship from the firm side, the welfare implications would be completely different. The reason for this is that in the first approach, that is, the market share hypothesis, firm performance (efficiency) is measured by the profitability of a firm and the relationship with market structure examined. According to this hypothesis, market power and efficiency are either negatively related, or not related. In the second approach, firm performance is measured by the efficiency of production. According to efficiency hypothesis, market power and efficiency are positively related. Feeny and Rogers (1999), Choi and Weiss (2005), Oustapassidis et al. (2000) and Bhattacharya and Bloch (1997) test both hypotheses for different countries and sectors and report controversial results. Thus, there is no clear evidence supporting any of the two hypotheses.

Economy-wide analysis of food waste reductions and related costs

JRC Technical Report
Wolfgang Britz, Hasan Dudu, Illarıa Fusacchia, Yaghoob Jafari, Roberto Roson, Luca Salvatici, Martina Sartori
2018
EUR 29434 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg doi:10.2760/942172
Full Report is available here .

Reducing of food waste has become a policy priority in recent years as many studies show that a significant amount of food is wasted in different stages of food supply chain. However, the economic impacts of food waste reduction are not well studied as most of the studies in the literature ignore the costs and feedback effects. The aim of this report is to develop a general framework to analyse the economic impacts of reducing food waste in EU28 both in a global and a regional context, to support the EU policy making process on food waste reduction. For the purposes of this study, we employ the CGEBox toolbox which is a flexible, extendable and modular code basis for CGE modelling. The default configuration of CGEBox that is used in this study covers the global economy with a detailed representation of agriculture and food production sector whereas the EU28 is modelled at NUTS-II level. We simulate food waste reduction in food processing sectors under two different cost assumptions. First, by assuming that the cost of reducing food waste is equal to the monetary savings for the food processing industry; and second, by assuming that the cost of reducing food waste is twice as much as the savings from food waste. The scenarios assume a food waste reduction that is equal to 5% of the intermediate input use of food processing sectors. The results suggest that a unilateral commitment of the EU to reduce food loss and waste would most likely decrease the competitiveness of the EU food processing. Reduced demand for primary agricultural inputs would shrink the EU’s agricultural sectors, pressuring on farm incomes and land prices. The contribution to global food security would be very minor. The impact on emissions relevant for climate change at global level is also minor, with some very limited contribution inside the EU.

Allocations budgétaires optimales et options de réformes pour le secteur agricole dans le Plan Sénégal Emergent 2019-2023

JRC Science for Policy Report Input for Policy
Boulanger Pierre, Dudu Hasan, Ferrari Emanuele, Mainar-Causapé Alfredo, Angelucci Federica, Baborska Renata, Meilland Thibault
2018
EUR 29574 FR, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg doi:10.2760/729645
Full Report is available here .

Ce rapport fournit des arguments scientifiques à l'appui d'options politiques en faveur du secteur agricole pour la deuxième phase du Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE) et de son Plan d'Actions Prioritaires (PAP) en 2019-2023. Cinq scénarios d'allocation budgétaire sont proposés au vu de leur impact respectif sur plusieurs cibles de performance visées par le PSE. Ils couvrent l'augmentation des dépenses vers (i) la recherche agricole et la dissémination des connaissances, (ii) les subventions aux intrants, (iii) les infrastructures d'irrigation, (iv) les infrastructures de transport en zones rurales et (v) l'éducation rurale et la santé rurale. Ils sont simulés avec un Modèle d'Equilibre Général Calculable (MEGC) dynamique récursif à l'échelle de l'économie du Sénégal. Ce modèle est calibré à partir d'une Matrice de Comptabilité Sociale (MCS) au secteur agricole désagrégé et de données de dépenses publiques collectées par le programme Suivi et Analyse des Politiques Agricoles et Alimentaires (SAPAA).

Estimation and modelling impacts of Pillar 2 measures on the agricultural sector: Workshop proceedings

JRC Conference and Workshop Reports
Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari
2018
EUR 29234 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg doi:10.2760/884943
Full Report is available here .

The EU's Rural Development Programme is worth €100 billion from 2014-2020 and leverages a further €61 billion of public funding in the Member States. Their possible impacts on farmers' behaviour and on farmers' productivity have long been discussed in the literature which shows a large knowledge gap regarding the role of Pillar 2 subsidies on agricultural productivity and on the methodology to estimate and model these effects. The workshop organised by the JRC aimed at individuating the needed steps to fill the existing gaps and create the necessary consensus between academia and policy makers to produce policy relevant results. The workshop highlighted a few key elements, both on estimation and modelling sides that will be useful to JRC to adopt the necessary steps to fill the above mentioned gaps.

Policy options to support the Agriculture Sector Growth and Transformation Strategy in Kenya: A CGE analysis

Science for Policy Report Input for Policy
Pierre Boulanger, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari, Alfredo Mainar Causapé, Jean Balié, Lucia Battaglia
2018
EUR 28979 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg doi:10.2760/109614
Full Report is available here .

The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (MoALF) of the Kenyan government is thoroughly reviewing its Agriculture Sector Growth and Transformation Strategy (ASGTS) to update it to fit the new global dynamics of the agricultural sector. A new ASGTS and a new National Agricultural Investment Plan will be established as guidelines for the period 2018-2030. MoALF is performing a consultative process to receive contributions from relevant stakeholders, following an approach that proved effective in preparing agricultural growth and transformation strategies under similar frameworks. A modelling exercise to explore ex-ante socioeconomic impacts of alternative agricultural growth and development options was recommended to support the final decision of MoALF.The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (MoALF) of the Kenyan government is thoroughly reviewing its Agriculture Sector Growth and Transformation Strategy (ASGTS) to update it to fit the new global dynamics of the agricultural sector. A new ASGTS and a new National Agricultural Investment Plan will be established as guidelines for the period 2018-2030. MoALF is performing a consultative process to receive contributions from relevant stakeholders, following an approach that proved effective in preparing agricultural growth and transformation strategies under similar frameworks. A modelling exercise to explore ex-ante socioeconomic impacts of alternative agricultural growth and development options was recommended to support the final decision of MoALF

Social Accounting Matrix of Kenya 2014

JRC Technical Report
Alfredo Mainar Causapé, Pierre Boulanger, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari, Scott McDonald
2018
EUR 29056 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg doi:10.2760/852198
Full Report is available here .

A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a comprehensive and economy-wide database recording data about all transactions between economic agents in a certain economy during a certain period of time. SAMs have a triple use: on the one hand, they offer in themselves a detailed description of the economic structure and circular flows of the income of a country or region; on the other, a battery of indicators and multipliers can be obtained from them, applying directly intuitive linear models; and, finally, they are the reference database for the calibration and exploitation of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models. This report presents the Social Accounting Matrix of Kenya for the year 2014, describing its specific structure and the basis for its estimation. In this sense, it is necessary to highlight the special structure of this SAM to reflect the Home Production for Home Consumption (HPHC) issue and a high disaggregation of agricultural and food sectors, both aspects so relevant in developing countries. In addition, some results of the exploitation of the SAM are presented, both descriptive (aggregate macroeconomic variables, sectoral value added and household income and consumption) and from the application of linear multipliers analysis (backward linkages, value chain decomposition and Structural Path Analysis). Finally, a complete on-line application is presented, both for the download of the SAM, and for the visualization of some indicators derived directly from it

Matrice de comptabilité sociale désagrégée de l'économie Sénégalaise en 2014

JRC Technical Report
Pierre Boulanger, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari, Alfredo Mainar Causapé
2017
EUR 28979 FR, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg doi:10.2760/563430, JRC108449.
Full Report is available here .

Ce rapport documente une Matrice de comptabilité sociale (MCS) désagrégée de l'économie sénégalaise en 2014. Elle comprend 218 comptes répartis en 55 activités économiques (dont 14 comptes de ménages en tant que producteurs), 57 comptes de produits commercialisés et 9 comptes de produits autoconsommés, 3 catégories de travail distingué selon la qualification (qualifié, semi-qualifié et non-qualifié) dans 14 régions sénégalaises et 1 région représentant le reste du monde; 5 comptes de capital (agricoles, non agricoles, terre non irriguée, terre irriguée et élevage), 5 comptes d'impôts et taxes (directs, indirects, ventes, facteur travail et importations), 33 catégories de ménages représentatifs (régionalisés) et un compte de marges, un compte d'épargne- investissement, 4 comptes allouant les investissements (routes, irrigation, autres infrastructures, reste des investissements), un compte d'entreprises, du gouvernement et du reste du monde

Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020

Science for Policy Report Input for Policy
R. M'barek, • • • , G. Genovese
2017
EUR 28797 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, ISBN 978-92-79-73859-3, doi:10.2760/887521, JRC108449.
Full Report, its summary and interactive visualization of the results of the study are available here .

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union faces the challenge of evolving towards a multifunctional policy that responds to the constantly changing needs of society. The CAP must respond to demands related to increased market efficiency and competitiveness; fostering jobs and ‘smart’ growth; contributing to climate change mitigation while adapting to a changing climate; ensuring responsible and sustainable biologically renewable resource management; and still respecting its initial aim of ensuring food security.
The present report was carried out by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and external experts in the context of the JRC’s analytical support to the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development. The report analyses the impact on the agricultural sector of stylised scenarios, reflecting the main drivers of policy debate and thus providing a framework for further exploration of the process of designing the future CAP. While the scenarios presented do not represent real policy options, they underline the potential for changes to current agri-food policies to address societal challenges and demands.
The analysis of the social, economic and environmental impacts of various options for the next CAP employs the iMAP platform models MAGNET, CAPRI and IFM-CAP in an integrated manner, covering different spatial scales (global, EU, Member State, NUTS 2 region and individual farm level). The use of three different models and their (soft) linkages adds complexity, particularly when trying to compare results across models (e.g. different commodity categories), but allows the analysis of a wider range of aspects and details.
The study considers three scenarios, designed beginning of 2016, that take polar paths, against a reference scenario, to characterise different visions for the CAP. The first scenario, Income & Environment (Inc&Env), assumes a more restrictive compliance with agri-environmental objectives needed for direct payment eligibility while maintaining the EU’s CAP budget at its current nominal level. The second scenario, Liberalisation & Productivity (Lib&Prod), assumes a strong reduction in subsidies (the removal of Pillar 1 direct payments, which are returned to tax payers), with a shift of Pillar 2 payments to productivityincreasing measures and further trade liberalisation. As a variant of the Lib&Prod scenario, the No Policy (NoCAP) scenario also eliminates Pillar 2 payments, thus removing all budgetary support to agriculture.

Impact of CAP Pillar II Payments on Agricultural Productivity

JRC Technical Report
Hasan Dudu, Zuzana Smeets Kritskova
2017
EUR 28589 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, ISBN 978-92-79-68723-5, doi:10.2760/802100, JRC106591

The impact of agricultural subsidies on productivity has long been discussed in the literature without any clear conclusions. Many studies attempted to shed light on the topic by using various methods and data (mostly relying on geographically limited farm-level data). Depending on the model specification, statistical method and data source mixed results are reported. This study aims at estimating the impact of common agricultural policy Pillar II payments on agricultural productivity by using NUTS-2 level data for the years 2007-2013 for the EU member state countries. We use a rather novel approach by simultaneously estimating a CES production function with productivity coefficients linked to the Pillar II payments. We use 4 categories of Pillar II payments (i.e. human capital, physical capital, agro-environmental and rural development) to explain the total factor productivity in agricultural sector. Our results suggest that regions receiving higher Pillar II payments for physical capital investments, human capital development or agro-environmental measures increase productivity. On the other hand, payments related to rural development do not have significant impact on productivity. The results do not change among the member states, date of access to the EU (i.e. old or new member states), spatial characteristics (i.e. being in the south, north or east) or size of the countries (i.e. big or small economies)

STAGE_DEV: A variant of the STAGE model to analyse developing countries

JRC Technical Report
Emerta Aragie, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari, Alfredo Mainar Causapé, Scott Mcdonald, Karen Thierfielder
2017
EUR 28627 EN; Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, doi:10.2760/90737

This document provides a description of the comparative static version of STAGE_DEV single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which is a variant/development of the STAGE 2 single country CGE model. This model embeds several new distinctive features which make this version tailored for the ex-ante impact analysis of national policies in developing countries. The model is designed for calibration using a reduced form of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) that broadly conforms to the UN System of National Accounts, which for the purpose of this study has been enriched with relevant satellite accounts.

Cumulative economic impact of future trade agreements on EU agriculture

JRC Science and Policy Report Input for Policy
Pierre Boulanger, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari, Mihaly Himics, Robert M'barek
2016
EUR 28206 EN; Publications Office of the European Union:Luxembourg, doi:10.2788/194880

This report presents potential effects of twelve free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU FTA agenda. It sheds some light on relatively balanced cumulated impacts in terms of trade, production and price for the EU agricultural sector as a whole, while quantifying also the market development for specific agricultural sectors. Different from a forecast exercise, it compares a conservative and an ambitious FTA scenario with a business as usual (reference) scenario.

Economic Growth in the Euro-Med Area through Trade Integration: Focus on Agriculture and Food. The Case of Turkey

JRC Science and Policy Report
Çakmak, E. H., Dudu, H.,
2013
JRC Science and Policy Reports No. 84201, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, doi: 10.2791/68185

This study analyses the effects on Turkey of trade liberalisation, the increase in the world price of basic staple commodities and productivity growth in agricultural activities using a dynamic CGE model calibrated to 2008 data. The simulation results suggest that the Turkish economy is capable of accommodating the adverse effects of trade liberalisation. There are significant welfare gains if trade liberalisation is accompanied by CAP payments in the accession scenario. Trade policy turns out to be a strong instrument for stabilising domestic prices and avoiding the adverse effects of world price increases. An increase in productivity in agri-food production has a substantial impact on welfare and trade.

An Integrated Analysis of Economy-wide Effects of Climate Change

Working Paper
Dudu, H., Çakmak,E.,
2014
WIDER Working Paper No. 2014/106, United Nations University-World Institute for Development Economics Resarch:Helsinki

Abstract

The effects of climate change in Turkey are expected to be significant. The aim of this paper is to quantify the effects of climate change on the overall economy by using an integrated framework incorporating a computable general equilibrium model and a crop water requirement model for the period 2010–99. The results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not be significant until the late 2030s; therefore Turkey has a chance to develop appropriate adaptation policies. After the 2030s, the effects of climate change are likely to be significant, with agriculture and food production being the most affected sectors.

Could free trade alleviate effects of climate change? A worldwide analysis with emphasis on Morocco and Turkey

Working Paper
Ouraich, I., Dudu, H., Tyner, W.E., Çakmak,E.,
2014
WIDER Working Paper No. 2014/100, United Nations University-World Institute for Development Economics Resarch:Helsinki

Abstract

This paper examines the interaction of globalization through trade liberalization and climate change, globally with a special focus on Morocco and Turkey. We use the GTAP model, which is a global general equilibrium model, to investigate trade liberalization welfare impacts under climate change, and its ability to provide mitigation and/or adaptation to potential losses. Our hypothesis was that trade liberalization would at least partially offset potential welfare losses induced by negative productivity shocks on agriculture. Our findings suggest that the world as a whole benefits the more trade is liberalized. For instance, under an unrealistic multilateral trade liberalization scenario, average net global welfare increases by +US$76,676 million. Hence, initial average welfare loss under climate change, which reached -US$31,775 million, is totally offset. Nonetheless, as we move away from complete trade liberalization to limited trade liberalization at the regional and sector levels, the gains realized are minimal and offset only marginally climateinduced welfare losses. At the regional level, most regions under trade liberalization do not experience large enough welfare gains to offset welfare losses triggered by negative productivity impacts in agriculture. The exceptions are countries/regions which are projected to benefit from climate change. For Morocco, tariff elimination under all scenarios on average induces additional welfare loss compared with the climate change only scenario. Despite the gains in allocative efficiency accruing from trade liberalization, the latter are generally low and are offset by the substantial negative contribution of the terms of trade and investment savings effects. For Turkey, trade liberalization induces net welfare gains under all scenarios. Nonetheless, these gains are not large enough to offset totally the initial loss under climate change. These results are primarily driven
by the combined effect of allocative efficiency and terms of trade effects.

Regional Impact of the Climate Change: A CGE Analysis for Turkey

Working Paper
Dudu, H., Çakmak, E. H.,
2011
Working Paper No. 644, Economic Research Forum, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3683.1844

Abstract
The effects of climate change on the overall economy necessitate taking into account backward and forward linkages of agriculture. However, the number of studies that relate climate change to agricultural production in Turkey through a sector or economy wide model is limited. Hence, further quantification of the effects of climate change on agricultural and overall economy is required to ponder about the possible impact of the climate change. This paper presents the results of a CGE modeling framework with enhanced regionalization. In addition the base year of the model is 2008. The model disaggregates national economy to 12 NUTS 1 regions. Results of global and regional climate models are used to run simulations about climate change. The results suggest that effects of climate change are significant and that regional interactions are important in understanding these effects. Our results support the fact that climate change mitigation should be considered as an integrated issue that would cause complicated results. Hence, any climate change mitigation policy needs to be region specific but should also consider the interaction among the regions.

Macro-Micro Feedback Links of Irrigation Water Management in Turkey

Working Paper
Çakmak, E.H., Dudu, H., Saracoglu, S., Diao, X., Roe, T.L., Tsur, Y.,
2008
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, No. WPS 4781, doi: 10.1596/1813-9450-4781

Abstract

Agricultural production is heavily dependent on water availability in Turkey, where half the crop production relies on irrigation. Irrigated agriculture consumes about 75 percent of total water used, which is about 30 percent of renewable water availability. This study analyzes the likely effects of increased competition for water resources and changes in the Turkish economy. The analysis uses an economy-wide Walrasian Computable General Equilibrium model with a detailed account of the agricultural sector. The study investigated the economy-wide effects of two external shocks, namely a permanent increase in the world prices of agricultural commodities and climate change, along with the impact of the domestic reallocation of water between agricultural and non-agricultural uses. It was also recognized that because of spatial heterogeneity of the climate, the simulated scenarios have differential impact on the agricultural production and hence on the allocation of factors of production including water. The greatest effects on major macroeconomic indicators occur in the climate change simulations. As a result of the transfer of water from rural to urban areas, overall production of all crops declines. Although production on rainfed land increases, production on irrigated land declines, most notably the production of maize and fruits. The decrease in agricultural production, coupled with the domestic price increase, is further reflected in net trade. Agricultural imports increase with a greater decline in agricultural exports.

Economics of Irrigation Water Management: A Literature Survey with Focus on Partial and General Equilibrium Models

Working Paper
Dudu, H., Chumi, S.,
2008
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, No. WPS 4556

Abstract

Water policy is an important topic on the agenda of the international community, and efficiency and equity in the allocation of water have emerged as important factors to be considered. Water pricing can be used to mitigate both the quantity and quality dimensions of water scarcity. This paper reviews partial equilibrium models and general equilibrium models that are relevant to irrigation water management issues. The most widely discussed issues in these models are water markets and water pricing. The interrelationships between economic, cultural, social, and political aspects that are related to water policy make it difficult to provide a comprehensive policy analysis. General equilibrium models of irrigation water management allow incorporation of both the irrigation sector and the other sectors in the economy and analysis of policies affecting each of them and the interaction between them. In addition to being able to address sector and household specifications, production factors, time horizon, pricing policies, and institutions such as water markets, general equilibrium models allow the analysis of the impact of water policies on equity and poverty alleviation. The authors conclude that, although there has been a significant increase in efforts to analyze water related problems, analytical and empirical research in the field is still deficient and more effort is needed to address them.