Greener economic development in Russia will allow the country to overcome the limits of its current fossil fuel-dependent growth model. It can deliver prosperity to Russia’s citizens that is more sustainable and more resilient to external shocks in a rapidly changing global economy. The choices toward carbon neutrality made by an increasing number of countries and companies bring a new wave of uncertainty to the value of fossil fuel assets. This uncertainty is likely to result in lower and more volatile revenue from exports of hydrocarbons and energy-intensive industrial products.

Armenia has made significant progress in improving population health outcomes over the past two decades. However, essential health care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is underutilized in part due to the cost of access. Armenia has also committed as a signatory to the Sustainable Development Goals, to making progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This commitment involves guaranteeing access to essential health care for all its citizens. The Ministry of Health (MoH) has developed a concept note for the introduction for Universal Health Insurance that proposes to mobilize additional revenue through payroll taxes or higher budgetary allocations to the sector. However, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has noted that revenue mobilization options should ideally demonstrate positive returns in terms of economic growth and employment. Therefore, at the request of the MoH, the World Bank has modeled the macroeconomic impacts of options to increase domestic resource mobilization to finance universal access to essential health services in the basic benefits package. The analysis assumes that through UHC reforms that mobilize additional public spending, the government would cover the cost of ninety-five percent of household needs for health care from 2021 to 2050, and that the increase in the demand for care will be supported by improvements in supply-side efficiency. The results suggest that increasing direct taxes is better than increasing indirect taxes as the former are less distortionary and cause smaller allocative inefficiencies.

Food security is a key topic for the Kenyan economy. This report contributes to the improvement of the understanding of the demand-side drivers of food demand patterns and their evolution in respect to changes in income and prices in this country. The report provides a new estimate of expenditure and price elasticities for goods consumed by households in Kenya. The estimation approach employed is based on the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) which depicts the demand system in a flexible way by imposing less restrictive marginal expenditure shares. The estimations are performed for 4 different levels of commodity grouping and also at the regional level, yielding significant income and price elasticities at all levels. These estimations will contribute to improve the overall food security analysis and in particularly can be useful to enhance the demand side of economic simulation models largely employed by JRC.

In this study we analyse the structure of food demand in Ethiopia to better understand the evolution of food demand under volatile prices and household income vulnerability. In particular, this report aims to estimate the income and price elasticities of the demand of main agricultural and food commodities for Ethiopian households by using state of the art methods and recent data to inform the policy making process with better information. The income and price elasticities measure the responsiveness of quantity of food demanded to changes in income and prices, respectively, and hence contribute to the discussions about policies related to food security. Further, they are important inputs for structural models that are developed by the JRC to support the stakeholders in Ethiopia on nutrition and food security. Using a QUAIDS approach controlling for the potential endogeneity of both expenditure and prices and data from the 2015-2016 Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey/LSMS-ISA, we find that cereals and animal products are superior (luxury) goods relative to other crops and manufactured food products that appear to be basic necessities. Further, cereals and animal products are elastic to price changes with high substitution effect, while manufactured foods and other crops are inelastic and unit elastic respectively to price changes with low substitution effect, thus confirming their status of essential foods for Ethiopian households. Finally, expenditure elasticities at regional level show a similar pattern that the national one, but price elasticities vary across regions.

Reducing of food waste has become a policy priority in recent years as many studies show that a significant amount of food is wasted in different stages of food supply chain. However, the economic impacts of food waste reduction are not well studied as most of the studies in the literature ignore the costs and feedback effects. The aim of this report is to develop a general framework to analyse the economic impacts of reducing food waste in EU28 both in a global and a regional context, to support the EU policy making process on food waste reduction. For the purposes of this study, we employ the CGEBox toolbox which is a flexible, extendable and modular code basis for CGE modelling. The default configuration of CGEBox that is used in this study covers the global economy with a detailed representation of agriculture and food production sector whereas the EU28 is modelled at NUTS-II level. We simulate food waste reduction in food processing sectors under two different cost assumptions. First, by assuming that the cost of reducing food waste is equal to the monetary savings for the food processing industry; and second, by assuming that the cost of reducing food waste is twice as much as the savings from food waste. The scenarios assume a food waste reduction that is equal to 5% of the intermediate input use of food processing sectors. The results suggest that a unilateral commitment of the EU to reduce food loss and waste would most likely decrease the competitiveness of the EU food processing. Reduced demand for primary agricultural inputs would shrink the EU’s agricultural sectors, pressuring on farm incomes and land prices. The contribution to global food security would be very minor. The impact on emissions relevant for climate change at global level is also minor, with some very limited contribution inside the EU.

Ce rapport fournit des arguments scientifiques à l'appui d'options politiques en faveur du secteur agricole pour la deuxième phase du Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE) et de son Plan d'Actions Prioritaires (PAP) en 2019-2023. Cinq scénarios d'allocation budgétaire sont proposés au vu de leur impact respectif sur plusieurs cibles de performance visées par le PSE. Ils couvrent l'augmentation des dépenses vers (i) la recherche agricole et la dissémination des connaissances, (ii) les subventions aux intrants, (iii) les infrastructures d'irrigation, (iv) les infrastructures de transport en zones rurales et (v) l'éducation rurale et la santé rurale. Ils sont simulés avec un Modèle d'Equilibre Général Calculable (MEGC) dynamique récursif à l'échelle de l'économie du Sénégal. Ce modèle est calibré à partir d'une Matrice de Comptabilité Sociale (MCS) au secteur agricole désagrégé et de données de dépenses publiques collectées par le programme Suivi et Analyse des Politiques Agricoles et Alimentaires (SAPAA).

The EU's Rural Development Programme is worth €100 billion from 2014-2020 and leverages a further €61 billion of public funding in the Member States. Their possible impacts on farmers' behaviour and on farmers' productivity have long been discussed in the literature which shows a large knowledge gap regarding the role of Pillar 2 subsidies on agricultural productivity and on the methodology to estimate and model these effects. The workshop organised by the JRC aimed at individuating the needed steps to fill the existing gaps and create the necessary consensus between academia and policy makers to produce policy relevant results. The workshop highlighted a few key elements, both on estimation and modelling sides that will be useful to JRC to adopt the necessary steps to fill the above mentioned gaps.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (MoALF) of the Kenyan government is thoroughly reviewing its Agriculture Sector Growth and Transformation Strategy (ASGTS) to update it to fit the new global dynamics of the agricultural sector. A new ASGTS and a new National Agricultural Investment Plan will be established as guidelines for the period 2018-2030. MoALF is performing a consultative process to receive contributions from relevant stakeholders, following an approach that proved effective in preparing agricultural growth and transformation strategies under similar frameworks. A modelling exercise to explore ex-ante socioeconomic impacts of alternative agricultural growth and development options was recommended to support the final decision of MoALF.The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (MoALF) of the Kenyan government is thoroughly reviewing its Agriculture Sector Growth and Transformation Strategy (ASGTS) to update it to fit the new global dynamics of the agricultural sector. A new ASGTS and a new National Agricultural Investment Plan will be established as guidelines for the period 2018-2030. MoALF is performing a consultative process to receive contributions from relevant stakeholders, following an approach that proved effective in preparing agricultural growth and transformation strategies under similar frameworks. A modelling exercise to explore ex-ante socioeconomic impacts of alternative agricultural growth and development options was recommended to support the final decision of MoALF

A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a comprehensive and economy-wide database recording data about all transactions between economic agents in a certain economy during a certain period of time. SAMs have a triple use: on the one hand, they offer in themselves a detailed description of the economic structure and circular flows of the income of a country or region; on the other, a battery of indicators and multipliers can be obtained from them, applying directly intuitive linear models; and, finally, they are the reference database for the calibration and exploitation of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models. This report presents the Social Accounting Matrix of Kenya for the year 2014, describing its specific structure and the basis for its estimation. In this sense, it is necessary to highlight the special structure of this SAM to reflect the Home Production for Home Consumption (HPHC) issue and a high disaggregation of agricultural and food sectors, both aspects so relevant in developing countries. In addition, some results of the exploitation of the SAM are presented, both descriptive (aggregate macroeconomic variables, sectoral value added and household income and consumption) and from the application of linear multipliers analysis (backward linkages, value chain decomposition and Structural Path Analysis). Finally, a complete on-line application is presented, both for the download of the SAM, and for the visualization of some indicators derived directly from it

Ce rapport documente une Matrice de comptabilité sociale (MCS) désagrégée de l'économie sénégalaise en 2014. Elle comprend 218 comptes répartis en 55 activités économiques (dont 14 comptes de ménages en tant que producteurs), 57 comptes de produits commercialisés et 9 comptes de produits autoconsommés, 3 catégories de travail distingué selon la qualification (qualifié, semi-qualifié et non-qualifié) dans 14 régions sénégalaises et 1 région représentant le reste du monde; 5 comptes de capital (agricoles, non agricoles, terre non irriguée, terre irriguée et élevage), 5 comptes d'impôts et taxes (directs, indirects, ventes, facteur travail et importations), 33 catégories de ménages représentatifs (régionalisés) et un compte de marges, un compte d'épargne- investissement, 4 comptes allouant les investissements (routes, irrigation, autres infrastructures, reste des investissements), un compte d'entreprises, du gouvernement et du reste du monde

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union faces the challenge of evolving towards a multifunctional policy that responds to the constantly changing needs of society. The CAP must respond to demands related to increased market efficiency and competitiveness; fostering jobs and ‘smart’ growth; contributing to climate change mitigation while adapting to a changing climate; ensuring responsible and sustainable biologically renewable resource management; and still respecting its initial aim of ensuring food security.
The present report was carried out by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and external experts in the context of the JRC’s analytical support to the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development. The report analyses the impact on the agricultural sector of stylised scenarios, reflecting the main drivers of policy debate and thus providing a framework for further exploration of the process of designing the future CAP. While the scenarios presented do not represent real policy options, they underline the potential for changes to current agri-food policies to address societal challenges and demands.
The analysis of the social, economic and environmental impacts of various options for the next CAP employs the iMAP platform models MAGNET, CAPRI and IFM-CAP in an integrated manner, covering different spatial scales (global, EU, Member State, NUTS 2 region and individual farm level). The use of three different models and their (soft) linkages adds complexity, particularly when trying to compare results across models (e.g. different commodity categories), but allows the analysis of a wider range of aspects and details.
The study considers three scenarios, designed beginning of 2016, that take polar paths, against a reference scenario, to characterise different visions for the CAP. The first scenario, Income & Environment (Inc&Env), assumes a more restrictive compliance with agri-environmental objectives needed for direct payment eligibility while maintaining the EU’s CAP budget at its current nominal level. The second scenario, Liberalisation & Productivity (Lib&Prod), assumes a strong reduction in subsidies (the removal of Pillar 1 direct payments, which are returned to tax payers), with a shift of Pillar 2 payments to productivityincreasing measures and further trade liberalisation. As a variant of the Lib&Prod scenario, the No Policy (NoCAP) scenario also eliminates Pillar 2 payments, thus removing all budgetary support to agriculture.

The impact of agricultural subsidies on productivity has long been discussed in the literature without any clear conclusions. Many studies attempted to shed light on the topic by using various methods and data (mostly relying on geographically limited farm-level data). Depending on the model specification, statistical method and data source mixed results are reported. This study aims at estimating the impact of common agricultural policy Pillar II payments on agricultural productivity by using NUTS-2 level data for the years 2007-2013 for the EU member state countries. We use a rather novel approach by simultaneously estimating a CES production function with productivity coefficients linked to the Pillar II payments. We use 4 categories of Pillar II payments (i.e. human capital, physical capital, agro-environmental and rural development) to explain the total factor productivity in agricultural sector. Our results suggest that regions receiving higher Pillar II payments for physical capital investments, human capital development or agro-environmental measures increase productivity. On the other hand, payments related to rural development do not have significant impact on productivity. The results do not change among the member states, date of access to the EU (i.e. old or new member states), spatial characteristics (i.e. being in the south, north or east) or size of the countries (i.e. big or small economies)

This document provides a description of the comparative static version of STAGE_DEV single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which is a variant/development of the STAGE 2 single country CGE model. This model embeds several new distinctive features which make this version tailored for the ex-ante impact analysis of national policies in developing countries. The model is designed for calibration using a reduced form of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) that broadly conforms to the UN System of National Accounts, which for the purpose of this study has been enriched with relevant satellite accounts.

This report presents potential effects of twelve free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU FTA agenda. It sheds some light on relatively balanced cumulated impacts in terms of trade, production and price for the EU agricultural sector as a whole, while quantifying also the market development for specific agricultural sectors. Different from a forecast exercise, it compares a conservative and an ambitious FTA scenario with a business as usual (reference) scenario.

This study analyses the effects on Turkey of trade liberalisation, the increase in the world price of basic staple commodities and productivity growth in agricultural activities using a dynamic CGE model calibrated to 2008 data. The simulation results suggest that the Turkish economy is capable of accommodating the adverse effects of trade liberalisation. There are significant welfare gains if trade liberalisation is accompanied by CAP payments in the accession scenario. Trade policy turns out to be a strong instrument for stabilising domestic prices and avoiding the adverse effects of world price increases. An increase in productivity in agri-food production has a substantial impact on welfare and trade.